Revisiting the 2007 Draft and a “What Could Have Been” for the Pacific Northwest

When asked about the 2007 draft, Sonics and Blazers fans have similar, “what could have been” reactions, albeit for different reasons. While Kevin Durant has blossomed into one of the greatest players in NBA history, his time as a Sonic lasted only one year. On the other hand, Greg Oden showed flashes of potential with the Blazers but his injury-plagued tenure in Portland ended after 82 games over 2 seasons.

Everyone knows that Portland and Seattle picked 1st and 2nd in the 2007 draft. What’s less known is that the odds of the Pacific Northwest teams landing atop the draft lottery were slim. Very slim.

While neither the Sonics nor Blazers had particularly great 2006-2007 seasons, they were far from the worst teams in the NBA. Seattle finished with the 5th-worst record in the leage (31-51, behind Memphis, Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta) while Portland finished with the NBA’s 7th-worst record. With 4 teams finishing 2006-2007 with worse records than the Sonics, Seattle’s chances of landing the 2nd pick were only 0.97%. Portland’s chances of landing the top pick were even narrower – 0.53%. Statistically speaking, there was only a 1 in 500 chance that Seattle and Portland would each return from the draft lottery with a top 2 pick.

While we look back on Portland’s 2007 pick as a Sam Bowie-esque blunder, Oden was the consensus #1 pick at the time. Most pundits were unified in the belief that Oden was a sure bet – an NBA-ready Center with the athleticism and skill to be Shaq 2.0. The mid 2000’s featured some of the slowest pacing in NBA history and the dominance of players like Shaq, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and emerging superstar Dwight Howard put a premium on talented bigs.

While Oden was considered a sure bet, questions surrounded Durant (at least to a greater degree than Oden). His slim frame raised questions about his durability and the ‘7-footer with guard skills’ prototype was new and untested. Hindsight is 20/20; few had Durant mocked as the #1 in 2008.

To no one’s surprise, Greg Oden went 1st overall, where he joined Seattle legends Brandon Roy and Nate McMillan in the City of Roses. Kevin Durant went 2nd overall to the Sonics and went on to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 20.3 points per game. Greg Oden missed the entire season due to a knee injury.

In an alternate universe, the 2010’s belong to the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately, we’re stuck with “what could have been.”